Updated May 4, 2026
Universe: 77 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity
Scoring: Hero x Progress composite (0-10)
Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5-10.0 / NEXT 5.5-7.4 / LATER 3.5-5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5
NOW
7.5-10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days
Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
7.99 | Sherman, TX | Texas Instruments | $30B | Texas Instruments fab $30B (workers arriving now) |
7.82 | Indianapolis | Eli Lilly | $20B+ | Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity mfg $13B+ (2,800+ jobs) |
NEXT
5.5-7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger
Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
6.40 ↑ NEW | Taylor | Samsung Electronics | $17B+ | Samsung $17B semiconductor fab (equipment installation phase, 2nm node) |
5.95 | Boise, ID | Micron Technology | $2B+ | Micron Technology existing fab (OPERATIONAL; 5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles) |
5.70 | Tulsa, OK | Century Aluminum/EGA | $10B+ | Century Aluminum/EGA $1.1B smelter (announced 2024) |
5.64 | West Lafayette, IN | SK hynix | $3.87B | SK hynix HBM packaging $3.87B ($458M CHIPS + $500M loan) (1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction) |
5.50 | Knoxville, TN | Oak Ridge | $500M+ | Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing) |
LATER
3.5-5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only
Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
5.40 ↓ | Columbus, OH | Anduril / Honda / Amazon | $25B+ | Intel semiconductor fab $20B (3,000+ direct; under construction) |
5.40 | San Antonio, TX | Toyota | $531M | Toyota $531M EV battery expansion (operational) |
5.33 | Kansas City, MO | Panasonic | $7B+ | Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025) |
5.12 | Syracuse, NY | Micron | $100B | Micron Technology semiconductor fab $100B ($6.2B CHIPS + $5.5B NY State) (9,000 direct / 50,000 total) |
4.95 ↓ | St. Louis, MO | Boeing | $2.0B+ | NGA Next $1.7B government campus (operational <18 months) |
Signals to Watch
↓ Columbus, OH (NOW to LATER) — Intel's $20B fab hiring ramp slipped from 2026 to 2027–28 (announced Feb 2026), and Intel is the dominant variable in Columbus's score. The 8.55 to 5.40 move reflects that timing slip, not a cancellation; Honda/LG is operational and Anduril is hiring, but neither carries the residential demand Intel does. The framework caught a real change — investment confirmed, workers not yet here. Watch: Intel job postings appearing in volume in the New Albany 43054 corridor. That's the confirmation signal that worker arrivals have finally caught up to the announced capital.
↓ Louisville, KY (drops out of LATER top 5) — Score moved from 5.46 to 3.90 without an obvious public-catalyst trigger. The stack reads stable: GE Appliances $490M laundry plant (800 jobs, 2027) and Ford's $1.9B Louisville Assembly retooling (2,200 jobs, 2027) both confirmed, with the BlueOval Glendale cancellation already isolated as separate from Louisville Assembly. The -1.56 most likely reflects a scorer adjustment or database edit, not a real-world setback. Watch: Ford EV groundbreaking confirmation and Appliance Park hiring volume — either would push this back toward the upper LATER band.
↑ NEW Taylor, TX (entering NEXT at 6.40) — Samsung's $17B 2nm fab moved into equipment installation phase, with 178 active job postings as of May 2026 and Tesla locked as anchor customer through 2033. The customer-uncertainty period that previously held the score back has ended — entering NEXT means underwrite now, set a trigger. The catch: roughly half the ~1,500 full-ramp jobs require 2nm specialist talent recruited globally (truly net-new Taylor residents); the rest will likely commute from Samsung's Austin campus 30 miles south. Watch: 2nm specialist hiring volume vs. Austin-campus transfers. Net-new arrivals — not total headcount — drive the demand story.
Scoring universe: 77 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of May 4, 2026Hero x Progress framework. Not investment advice.